Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect蝴蝶效应

First listen and then answer the following question: Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?

Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性,如果超过六七天,天气预报就没有了任何价值。

The Butterfly Effect is the reason.

原因是蝴蝶效应。

For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.

对于小片的恶劣天气 -- 对一个全球性的气象预报员来说,“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪 -- 任何预测的质量会很快下降。

Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

错误和不可靠性上升,接踵而来的是一系列湍流的徵状,从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of 60 miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.

现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示,图中每个点大约是间隔 60 英里。既使是这样,有些开始时的资料也不得不依靠推测,因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方。

But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

假设地球上可以布满传感器,每个相隔 1 英尺,并按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。

Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.

再假定每个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度、气压、温度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据。

Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03...

在正午时分,一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料,并算出在每一个点上 12:01、12:02、12:03 时可能出现的情况。

The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.

计算机无法推断出 1 个月以后的某一天,新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天。

At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.

正午时分,传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动、任何偏平均值的变化。

By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.

到 12:01 时,那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差。

Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.

很快这种偏差会增加到尺 10 英的范围,如此等等,一直到全球的范围。

JAMES GLEICK,Chaos

View of the 76 metre diameter Mark 1A radio telescope
View of the 76 metre diameter Mark 1A radio telescope at Jodrell Bank near Manchester, England
18个相关单词

与课文关联的单词

forecast

/ˈfɔːkɑːst/n. 预报

speculative

//adj. 推测的

blizzard

//n. 暴风雪

deteriorate

//v. 变坏,恶化

multiply

/ˈmʌltɪplaɪ/v. 增加

cascade

//v. 瀑布似的落下

turbulent

/ˈtɜːbjələnt/adj. 狂暴的

dust devil

//n. 小尘暴,尘旋风

squall

/skwɔːl/n. 暴风

eddy

//n. 旋涡

grid

/ɡrɪd/n. 坐标方格

sensor

//n. 传感器

humidity

//n. 湿度

meteorologist

//n. 气象学家

princeton

//n. 普林斯顿(美国城市)

new jersey

//n. 新泽西(美国州名)

fluctuation

//n. 起伏,波动

deviation

//n. 偏差
笔记更新中
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提出观点 更新于:2024-10-08 00:15:56

The Butterfly Effect

知识点(1)

butterfly n. 蝴蝶;蝶泳;举止轻浮的人;追求享乐的人

※ a social butterfly

 

have butterflies (in one’s stomach) 忐忑不安

※ It was the morning of the World Cup Final and most of the players had butterflies (in their stomach). 

 

知识点(2)课文背景介绍

chaos theory n. 混沌理论

Small changes in initial conditions can lead to large-scale and unpredictable variation in the future state of the system.

A frequent metaphor for one aspect of chaos theory is the Butterfly Effect: butterflies flapping their wings in the Amazon affect the weather in Chicago.

 

 

Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

知识点(1)

Beyond two or three days 超过了两三天

 

beyond prep. 

 

课文写法替换:

after …; 

later than … 

Exceeding two or three days, …

 

知识点(2)

… the world's best weather forecasts are speculative …

 

※ 课文写法替换::

※ … are based on speculation / conjecture.

※ … are based on guesswork / guess work.

 

知识点(3)

… they are worthless.

 

※ 课文写法替换:表达“没有价值的”

※ … they are valueless

※ … they are useless

※ … they are of no earthly use.

※ … they are totally useless.

提出主题 更新于:2024-08-24 12:39:22

The Butterfly Effect is the reason.

知识点(1)

reason for / behind 背后的原因

※ The Butterfly Effect is the reason for / behind it. 

 

知识点(2)

※ 课文写法替换:表达“是…的原因”

※ The Butterfly Effect accounts for it. 

※ The Butterfly Effect underlies it. 

※ The reason is the Butterfly Effect. 

※ The reason lies in the Butterfly Effect. 

※ The reason is because of the Butterfly Effect. X错误表达,reason和because重复

 

 

For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.

For small pieces of weather(介词短语做状语) — and to a global forecaster(介词短语做状语), small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards(插入语) — any prediction deteriorates rapidly. 

 

知识点(1)

mean v. 英文解释:be likely to result in … 导致、意味着…

※ The merger will mean the eventual closure of the company’s Shanghai Office.

 

知识点(2)

deteriorate vi. 恶化,变坏 ; vt. 恶化

 

※ 课文写法替换:表达“恶化,变坏”

※ … any prediction gets worse / degenerates / becomes inaccurate rapidly. 

 

 

Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from(from …介词短语当后置定语) dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see. (cascading … 非谓语动词做状语,修饰multiply)

 

知识点(1)

multiply v. 英文解释:to increase by a large amount or number, or to make sth. do this (使)大幅增加

※ Within the last 10 years, both sales and profits have multiplied.

※ Smoking multiplies the risk of heart attacks. 

 

【近义词】表达“大幅增加”:

snowball

※ Unemployment snowballed at the beginning of 1980s. 

 

proliferate

※ Small businesses have proliferated in the last ten years. 

 

mushroom

※ Trade between the two countries has mushroomed. 

 

explode

※ China’s population exploded after 1949. 

※ population explosion

 

知识点(2)

【近义词组】表达“一连串的”:

a chain of …

a series of …

a train of …

a string of … 

a succession of …

a progression of … 

 

知识点(3)

feature n. characteristic 特征

 

知识点(4)

from A to B 从A到B

from A up to B 从A一直到到B

工作原理 更新于:2024-08-24 12:39:50

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of 60 miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of 60 miles apart(介词短语当后置定语), and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since(因为) ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere(原因状语从句).

 

知识点(1)

work v. 英文解释:(of a machine, device, etc) function; operate (指机器、设备等)运作,运转

※ This machine works by electricity. 

※ The delete key doesn't work.

 

知识点(1)

grid n. 英文解释:a pattern of straight lines that cross each other to form squares (地图上的)坐标方格

※ streets laid out on a grid pattern 

 

知识点(3)

of / in / on the order of … = approximately 大约、大概

※ The house cost him something on / in / of the order of $200,000.

※ The house cost him something in the neighborhood / vicinity of $200,000.

※ The house cost him approximately $200,000. 

 

知识点(4)

starting adj. beginning 最初的

 

【近义词】表达“最初的”:

initial adj. 最初的;字首的

※ at the initial stage / phase 

 

incipient adj. 初期的;初始的;起初的;发端的

※ incipient tumor

※ the incipient light of day 

 

opening adj. 开始的;开篇的;开头的

※ his opening remarks

 

※ the opening scene of the movie 

 

preliminary adj. 预备性的;初步的;开始的

※ a preliminary exam / contest

 

 

But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

But suppose(祈使句) (省略that,宾语从句)the earth could(虚拟语气) be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart(后置定语), rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere(all the way to…介词短语做状语). (rising... 方式状语)

 

知识点(1)

space v. 将……均匀隔开

※ Space your workouts two days apart to avoid sore muscles.

※ Bean plants should be spaced three inches apart. 

 

知识点(2)

interval n. 含义1:(两事件中的)间隔时间

※ …, and by measuring the time interval between the taps and the receipt of the echoes the depth of the sea at that point can be calculated. 

 

interval n. 含义2:(物体之间的)间隔空间

※ They planted trees in the intervals between the houses.

 

知识点(3)

all the way 一 直 …… 

※ He ran all the way home.

※ Eventually the turtle has been butted all the way down to the floor of the tank.

 

 

Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.

suppose(祈使句)(省略that,宾语从句)every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want(定语从句). 

 

知识点(1)

reading 读数

※ take the meter reading 查表

※ read the meter 查表

 

 

Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03...

看作省略了suppose that的祈使句:

Precisely at noon(时间状语) an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point(地点状语) at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03... (时间状语) (what… 宾语从句)

 

知识点(1)

Precisely at noon 正午时分

= at high noon

= at 12 o’clock sharp

= at punctually 12 o’clock

 

知识点(2)

infinite adj. 无限的,无穷的;无数的;极大的

※ The universe is infinite. 

 

【反义词】

finite adj. 有限的;限定的

※ Human knowledge is finite. 

 

【形近词】

infinitive adj. 原形的,不定式的

definite adj. 一定的;确切的

indefinite adj. 不确定的;无限的;模糊的

※ an indefinite answer 

 

definitive

※ a definitive verdict 

 

知识点(2)

calculate v. 计算

 

【近义词组】表达“计算”:

work out

figure out

compute

reckon

※ The inflation is reckoned to be 10%.

现实情况 更新于:2024-08-24 12:40:16

The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.

 

At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.

At noon (时间状语)the spaces between the sensors(后置定语) will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about(that ...定语从句,修饰fluctuations), tiny deviations from the average(fluctuations的同位语).

 

 

By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.

 

Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.

知识点(1)

multiplied “大幅增加”

 

【近义词】表达“大幅增加”:同义替换

※ … will have snowballed to …

※ … will have proliferated to …

※ … will have rocketed to …

※ … will have soared to … 

 

知识点(2)

scale 程度、规模、范围

※ on a small scale 小规模

※ on a limited scale 有限规模

※ on a large / grand scale 大规模

※ on a / an colossal / enormous / gigantic scale 特大规模

※ on a national / nationwide scale 全国规模

※ on a / an global / international / world / worldwide scale 全世界规模

 

知识点(3)

and so on 等等

 

【近义词组】表达“等等”:

and so forth 

etc. (et cetera) 

and the like 

and what not 

 

知识点(3)

global size 全世界规模

global scale 全世界规模

international / world / worldwide scale  全世界规模